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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement wins the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

But the latest race is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and longtime strugglers ascending together. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the chance to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still